The opinion piece published by the Kyiv Post under the title “Kadyrov and Chechnya – Putin’s Black Swans” offers a critical reading of the growing vulnerability of Vladimir Putin’s regime in light of the “Kadyrov factor” and Russia’s internal political condition.
The author, Inal Sherip — a cultural studies scholar and political figure within the Chechen diaspora — argues that Ramzan Kadyrov should no longer be seen merely as a loyal ally of the Kremlin, but increasingly as a source of fragility for Putin’s system itself. The article opens by examining the recent “surprises” (so-called black swans) confronting Putin — diplomatic failures, international pressure, and military deadlock — and explains how, in this context, Kadyrov’s role has become increasingly problematic.
Sherip traces the evolution of the political project that, over the years, led to the construction of a personal power apparatus around Kadyrov — initially designed as a tool for Moscow’s control over the Caucasus — and shows how this same apparatus now risks turning into a “toxic asset.” The reasons are multiple: the growing cultural and religious autonomy of Chechnya’s leadership from Russia’s official narrative, its ties with Gulf states, and the ostentatious concentration of power and wealth.
At the core of the analysis lies the hypothesis that the potential disappearance or weakening of Kadyrov — whether due to health issues or internal conflict — could trigger a chain reaction capable of undermining Russia’s internal power balances themselves: from the redistribution of federal security forces, to an intense succession struggle within Kadyrov’s inner circle, to the opening of new spaces for intervention by Russia’s central security services, such as the FSB.
Ultimately, Sherip advances a non-conventional but compelling interpretation: Putin’s dependence on figures like Kadyrov is no longer merely a coercive advantage, but a potential breaking point for the stability of his own system of power — an internal “black swan” that could accelerate far broader dynamics of instability.
The full article is available at:
Ichkeria Digital Archive 